While competing teams have been chipping away at Hendrick Motorsports’ superiority in recent weeks, the betting market expects the top Hendrick drivers to reassert their dominance when the Cup Series returns from its two-week break Sunday at Watkins Glen (3 p.m. ET on NBCSN, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Chase Elliott, winner of the two most recent races on the famed road course in upstate New York, is priced as the obvious favorite, with sportsbooks around the country dealing 2/1 odds on the No. 9 Chevrolet making it three in a row. Those are tight odds for a NASCAR outright market (betting on a driver to win the race), but it’s familiar territory for Elliott on a road course.
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At Road America on July 4, Elliott claimed the checkers at +250 (5/2 odds, or bet $100 to win $250), a price bettors would relish on the No. 9 this week. Elliott was +200 (2/1) when he finished second on the Sonoma road course in June, +180 when he won at Austin’s Circuit Of The Americas in May, and +250 for his anomalous 21st-place finish on the Daytona Road Course in February.
Over the last nine road course races dating back to 2019, Elliott has six wins and two seconds. While this analysis is an oversimplification, that 66.67% win rate makes +200 odds (which imply a 33.33% chance to win) look awfully enticing.
Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen is the first of two consecutive road course stops for the Cup Series, with the road layout at Indianapolis Motor Speedway set for Aug. 15. In other words, expect a similar skinny price on Elliott next week.
Next on the Watkins Glen oddsboard is Elliott’s Hendrick teammate, Kyle Larson, who looked nearly untouchable during a nine-race stretch earlier this season in which he tallied four wins and four seconds (including the All-Star Race). That run included a win at Sonoma and a second in Austin, and the current favorite to win the 2021 Cup title has the market’s respect this week, priced at a consensus +450.
Looking for value among other contenders
Team Penske occupies the first three spots on Sunday’s starting grid, but Joe Gibbs Racing is the greatest threat to Hendrick, per the betting numbers. More specifically, it’s Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch.
Truex’s road-course record is stellar, second only to Elliott’s, and while he hasn’t won a race since Darlington in May, there’s still plenty of confidence in the No. 19. In the 12 road course races since 2018, Truex has finished in the top 10 nine times, including a pair of wins and six top fives. With an 8.0 average finish and 114.1 rating over those dozen runs, he’s offered at +650 at BetMGM and Barstool, an attractive number when comparing it to the +500 being dealt at the market-making SuperBook USA in Las Vegas.
Busch has four wins in 38 career road-course races but none in his last 12. He has five top-five finishes on road courses since 2018, and his 97.1 driver rating during that stretch ranks fourth in the series.
And the No. 18 is in the best form of any team in the JGR garage, putting together six top fives over the eight most recent races, including a fifth at Sonoma and a third at Road America. Bettors buying into Busch but hesitant to back him to win the race at +800 odds have these among their other options at BetMGM: -105 for a top-five finish, +105 in a matchup prop vs. Truex, and -125 vs. Joey Logano.
Speaking of Logano, the No. 22 is offered at a fat +1500 at BetMGM and +1400 at Barstool to visit Victory Lane on Sunday, numbers that scream value when considering the +1000 posted at the SuperBook.
A pick to consider
Media personality Todd Fuhrman, a former Vegas oddsmaker, chimed in with a pick for NASCAR bettors to consider Sunday.
Ross Chastain has found some mid-season momentum, finishing in the top eight in five of the last nine races, including a fourth-place finish in Austin and a seventh at Road America. While the Chip Ganassi Racing driver is a long +4000 to win the race, per consensus pricing, Fuhrman likes the No. 42 Chevy to finish in the top 10 at +125, a number available at Barstool as of Friday.
Fuhrman has been tabbed by NASCAR to host a series of betting tutorial videos launching this week.
Futures action at BetMGM
While Larson is the clear favorite to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Championship, one bettor in Las Vegas got down a substantial amount of money on Larson futures just before the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte, the first of three straight points race victories for the No. 5.
Per an email NASCAR.com received from Michael Ranftle, a Sports Trader at BetMGM, that’s when a $20,000 wager was placed at the Bellagio on Larson at +550, a potential $110,000 payout.
“Smart time to get onboard,” Ranftle wrote.
Three weeks later, another bettor at Beau Rivage in Mississippi bet $10,000 Larson at +275, hoping to cash $27,500.
Ahead of Watkins Glen, BetMGM is on the low end of the Larson futures market, dealing +225, while Vegas bettors can find +300 at the SuperBook.
In the two races preceding the two-week break, Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola disrupted a streak of 19 races won by a driver from either the Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske garage, slipping into the playoff field. While Busch can be had at +2500 and Almirola for +4000 at BetMGM, neither has drawn much betting interest, according to Ranftle, as Larson, Ellliott and Kurt’s brother, Kyle, have seen the bulk of futures action.
Marcus DiNitto is a writer and editor living in Charlotte, North Carolina. He has been covering sports for nearly two-and-a-half decades and sports betting for more than 10 years. His first NASCAR betting experience was in 1995 at North Wilkesboro Speedway, where he went 0-for-3 on his matchup picks. Read his articles and follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.