I’ve found myself on Aric Almirola a lot recently. He gave us a sweat at Texas on Sunday, leading the second-most laps (62) and running the second-most fast laps (50) en route to a runner-up finish at 40-1 odds.
Thankfully, Almirola also finished one spot ahead of Daniel Suarez, cashing a driver matchup between the Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) teammates at +110.
In all honesty, I’m not going out of my way to bet Aric, he’s just consistently being undervalued by the NASCAR betting market.
And looking at openers from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook for this weekend’s Bluegreen Vacations 500 at ISM Raceway, the driver of the SHR No. 10 Ford is once again priced as a longshot, while his recent stats at ISM Raceway suggest otherwise.
Aric Almirola (50-1) to Win
Almirola’s recent numbers at ISM Raceway are stellar. Over the past four Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) races at the flat, 1-mile tri-oval, only two drivers (Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick) have better average finishes than Aric’s 6.0.
In addition, Almirola has the seventh-best driver rating at ISM over that span.
This four-race sample also includes the most recent MENCS event at this race track, which took place back in March and is the only race at ISM using the current aero package.
In that race, Almirola finished fourth, led the third-most laps (26) and had the sixth-best driver rating (100.7).
Further, Aric was a borderline top-five car at Martinsville, another short, flat track, just two weeks ago before getting knocked out of the race after an incident with Kyle Busch.
For all of these reasons, I like the value with Almirola at the longshot price of 50-1. And while the full list of NASCAR props won’t open until the weekend, I’ll also be very interested in a top-five wager assuming he’s priced similarly after practice and qualifying.