Power Rankings: Will Alex Bowman sneak through Round of 12?

By Pat DeCola | Tuesday, September 21, 2021

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NASCAR.com's Pat DeCola ranks the 2021 NASCAR Playoffs drivers after the Round of 16 elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway and before the Round of 12.

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12. Christopher Bell (-4)

Season-high: 8th
Season-low: 16th
Comment: Somehow, despite one finish better than 13th since Watkins Glen, Bell has advanced to the Round of 12. His first top 10 at Las Vegas came in the spring, so perhaps he can turn it around to start this round. This team needs a spark quickly, otherwise it could be looking at a quick exit.

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11. Brad Keselowski (-1)

Season-high: 2nd
Season-low: 15th
Comment: Keselowski is still clawing his way to decent finishes after it briefly looked like the team was ready to pack it in during the late-summer races. The Round of 12 sets up nicely for him, so the Two Crew may have legs still. He was runner-up at Vegas in the spring, his fifth top-two finish there from 2013-on (three wins).

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10. Kyle Busch (-1)

Season-high: 2nd
Season-low: 14th
Comment: Busch absolutely has all the talent in the world and could certainly take it all the way to Phoenix, but he and the No. 18 team look like Round of 12 cuts at the moment, given his recent stretch and the tracks in this round. He's had some strong runs at his home track recently — and won at Vegas in 2009 — but it's a middling track for him. Not promising with Talladega and the Roval looming.

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9. Joey Logano (-3)

Season-high: 2nd
Season-low: 11th
Comment: Logano was near the front of the field in every Round of 16 race, in his best three-week stretch since the Sonoma to Pocono run. There's still work to do, though. With a pristine 8.4 average Vegas finish and a win there in each of the last two seasons, it could all start to click on Sunday.

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8. Alex Bowman (+4)

Season-high: 5th
Season-low: 17th
Comment: Bowman — and Hendrick cars in general — picked up some much-needed momentum, speed and attitude at Bristol, Bowman (fifth-place finish) included. He had a top five in this race last year as well, and could get off to a nice start this round after coming a little too close for comfort to not escaping the Round of 16.

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7. William Byron (+8)

Season-high: 3rd
Season-low: 18th
Comment: When Byron's on, he's on, but the opposite has also been true the past couple of months. He drove his heart out at Bristol and was able to advance by the skin of his teeth. He now heads to Vegas, where No. 24 notched a top 10 and led 25 laps earlier this spring.

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6. Kevin Harvick (+1)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 12th
Comment: Harvick championship run back on? There was a fire in No. 4's eyes on Saturday night that we haven't seen in some time, and it could ignite a Tony Stewart-esque title trot. With two wins at Vegas and a whole bunch of laps led in several races from 2015-on, he should keep pace on Sunday.

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5. Chase Elliott (-1)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 10th
Comment: Elliott's 25th-place finish at Bristol almost doesn't matter. He advanced, he led a season-high 129 laps and he now has an internal fire that burns with the rage of 1,000 suns for motivation. Combine that all with a fast car and he should have a good shot at Vegas, despite a rough 20.6 average finish there.

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4. Ryan Blaney (+1)

Season-high: 4th
Season-low: 15th
Comment: Blaney continues to look like a championship-caliber driver, and there's a strong chance he could be battling his very good friend — and defending champ — for it down the line. He's yet to win at Vegas, but it's among his best tracks with a 9.2 average finish.

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3. Martin Truex Jr. (--)

Season-high: 2nd
Season-low: 10th
Comment: Truex and Bristol have never really gotten along, so a P7 in a particularly intense race just shows how well the No. 19 team is clicking at the moment. A track where they have historically done well is this weekend's venue, where Truex has two wins and seven top 10s from 2017-on.

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2. Denny Hamlin (--)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 6th
Comment: Hamlin led a whopping 408 laps in the Round of 16, as he continues to cruise toward the Championship 4. Though his last two Vegas races he finished third and fourth, it's more likely he punches his Round of 8 ticket at Talladega or the Roval. He's never won at the Nevada track and has nine top 10s in 19 starts.

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1. Kyle Larson (--)

Season-high: 1st
Season-low: 14th
Comment: And he's back. Larson picked up his first win since Watkins Glen but should still be viewed as the championship favorite until proven otherwise. He could very easily go back-to-back this weekend — he won Vegas earlier this year and has been lights out there in general in his career.

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