X
Fantasy Fastlane: Knowing your ABCs for Talladega
By RJ Kraft | Friday, October 2, 2020
NASCAR Digital Media
1 of 20
View Fullscreen
Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2 of 20
View Fullscreen
Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has three wins at Talladega for his Cup career and is one of the best on superspeedways. He has the most points at Talladega over the last five races – an average of 42 points per race. He has the second-most points on superspeedways since 2018. At two uses left, I'd be looking to save him for Texas and Martinsville. At three, I'd be tempted to garage him.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has three wins at Talladega for his Cup career and is one of the best on superspeedways. He has the most points at Talladega over the last five races – an average of 42 points per race. He has the second-most points on superspeedways since 2018. At two uses left, I'd be looking to save him for Texas and Martinsville. At three, I'd be tempted to garage him.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
3 of 20
View Fullscreen
Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has turned into a superspeedway whisperer in recent years with three Daytona 500 wins in the last five years. He also has a Talladega win in his Cup career. He has three top fives and the sixth-most points in the last five races at ‘Dega and has the third-most points on superspeedways since 2018. I wouldn't play both him and Logano, but a garage stash could be a nice boon.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has turned into a superspeedway whisperer in recent years with three Daytona 500 wins in the last five years. He also has a Talladega win in his Cup career. He has three top fives and the sixth-most points in the last five races at ‘Dega and has the third-most points on superspeedways since 2018. I wouldn't play both him and Logano, but a garage stash could be a nice boon.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
4 of 20
View Fullscreen
Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's five wins at Talladega are best among the field for Sunday's race. Yet there's concern in his recent stats at the Alabama track: No finish better than 13th and only the 13th-most points in the last five races. He has only scored the 16th-most points on superspeedways since 2018. If you have four uses or more, I feel OK about a play despite the recent stats.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski's five wins at Talladega are best among the field for Sunday's race. Yet there's concern in his recent stats at the Alabama track: No finish better than 13th and only the 13th-most points in the last five races. He has only scored the 16th-most points on superspeedways since 2018. If you have four uses or more, I feel OK about a play despite the recent stats.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
5 of 20
View Fullscreen
Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is a name I've already gotten a good deal of questions about as a potential Talladega play. He has a win, three top-eight finishes and the eighth-most points in his last five starts here. In evaluating Elliott, it is important to keep an eye on the upcoming schedule. The Roval and Kansas are must-uses, while Martinsville is pretty close to that category.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is a name I've already gotten a good deal of questions about as a potential Talladega play. He has a win, three top-eight finishes and the eighth-most points in his last five starts here. In evaluating Elliott, it is important to keep an eye on the upcoming schedule. The Roval and Kansas are must-uses, while Martinsville is pretty close to that category.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6 of 20
View Fullscreen
Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has won the last two races at Talladega and over the last five races there has scored the third-most points at the track – an average of 35.6 points. A big reason for his high points total is his propensity to soak up stage points at superspeedways. He also carries a streak of four top-six finishes on superspeedways into Sunday's race.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney has won the last two races at Talladega and over the last five races there has scored the third-most points at the track – an average of 35.6 points. A big reason for his high points total is his propensity to soak up stage points at superspeedways. He also carries a streak of four top-six finishes on superspeedways into Sunday's race.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
7 of 20
View Fullscreen
Kurt Busch (P) | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's Las Vegas win locks him into the Round of 8. Given his points position for the next round, I expect Busch to be chasing a stage win or two as he looks to add more playoff points to his total. In the last five races at Talladega, Busch has three top 10s and the fifth-most points earned. While he has never won at ‘Dega, he has top 10s in more than half his starts (21 in 39).
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's Las Vegas win locks him into the Round of 8. Given his points position for the next round, I expect Busch to be chasing a stage win or two as he looks to add more playoff points to his total. In the last five races at Talladega, Busch has three top 10s and the fifth-most points earned. While he has never won at ‘Dega, he has top 10s in more than half his starts (21 in 39).
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
8 of 20
View Fullscreen
Aric Almirola (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Of the drivers in the playoff field, Almirola has the best average finish at Talladega (14.8). That is boosted by his run of eight straight top-nine finishes at the 2.66-mile superspeedway – a run that also includes his 2018 win. He is second only to Joey Logano for points scored in the last five Talladega races. Given the likely lack of uses so far and his points position likely leading him to go hard for stage points (-27), this is a great spot for a use.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Of the drivers in the playoff field, Almirola has the best average finish at Talladega (14.8). That is boosted by his run of eight straight top-nine finishes at the 2.66-mile superspeedway – a run that also includes his 2018 win. He is second only to Joey Logano for points scored in the last five Talladega races. Given the likely lack of uses so far and his points position likely leading him to go hard for stage points (-27), this is a great spot for a use.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
9 of 20
View Fullscreen
Alex Bowman (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has the seventh-most points scored over the last five races at Talladega. One flag with that stat: He has top 10s in all three spring races over that span and finishes outside the top 30 in the two playoff races over that stretch. That said, though, he does have the fourth-most points scored on superspeedways in 2020 and has averaged 36.3 points in his last six 2020 races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has the seventh-most points scored over the last five races at Talladega. One flag with that stat: He has top 10s in all three spring races over that span and finishes outside the top 30 in the two playoff races over that stretch. That said, though, he does have the fourth-most points scored on superspeedways in 2020 and has averaged 36.3 points in his last six 2020 races.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10 of 20
View Fullscreen
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse won at Talladega in 2017 and has the best average finish (10.9) among drivers with at least two starts. Over the last five races at Talladega, he has the fourth-most points scored and four races of at least 34 points in that stretch. There’s a high risk-reward vibe to him given his tendency to be in or near wrecks, but at his best track, it's a risk I'm willing to take.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse won at Talladega in 2017 and has the best average finish (10.9) among drivers with at least two starts. Over the last five races at Talladega, he has the fourth-most points scored and four races of at least 34 points in that stretch. There’s a high risk-reward vibe to him given his tendency to be in or near wrecks, but at his best track, it's a risk I'm willing to take.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
11 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Chris Buescher | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Three drivers have scored top 10s in every superspeedway race in 2020 – Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Buescher. His 6.0 average finish in those races is third best as is his average of 32.7 points in those races. He may not get stage points, but he has shown a propensity (much like his Roush teammate Ryan Newman) to be at the front when it matters most.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 17 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Three drivers have scored top 10s in every superspeedway race in 2020 – Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin and Buescher. His 6.0 average finish in those races is third best as is his average of 32.7 points in those races. He may not get stage points, but he has shown a propensity (much like his Roush teammate Ryan Newman) to be at the front when it matters most.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
12 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is the most recent superspeedway winner, having won the regular-season finale at Daytona. This may be his best shot at win No. 2 and potentially one final win for crew chief Chad Knaus atop the box. The young driver finished 11th here in the June race and has led laps in four of his five Talladega starts.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 30-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron is the most recent superspeedway winner, having won the regular-season finale at Daytona. This may be his best shot at win No. 2 and potentially one final win for crew chief Chad Knaus atop the box. The young driver finished 11th here in the June race and has led laps in four of his five Talladega starts.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
13 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Ty Dillon | View stats
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Among drivers with more than three starts at Talladega, Dillon has the second-best average finish at 13.3. In seven starts there, he has finished between 10th and 17th in all of them. In that same stretch of races, he has scored the eighth-most points at the track – more than Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick.
Germain Racing, No. 13 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Among drivers with more than three starts at Talladega, Dillon has the second-best average finish at 13.3. In seven starts there, he has finished between 10th and 17th in all of them. In that same stretch of races, he has scored the eighth-most points at the track – more than Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
14 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: John Hunter Nemechek | View stats
Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie has the eighth-most points on superspeedways in 2020 with an average of 27 points per race. His 10.0 average finish in this type of racing is fourth best this year – right behind Chris Buescher. His eighth-place finish at Talladega was sandwiched between two 11th-place finishes at Daytona. This is a good out-of-the-box option.
Front Row Motorsports, No. 38 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The rookie has the eighth-most points on superspeedways in 2020 with an average of 27 points per race. His 10.0 average finish in this type of racing is fourth best this year – right behind Chris Buescher. His eighth-place finish at Talladega was sandwiched between two 11th-place finishes at Daytona. This is a good out-of-the-box option.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
15 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Bubba Wallace | View stats
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace has scored the seventh-most points in the 2020 superspeedway races. His 11.3 average finish in this type of racing this season is fifth-best among full-time drivers and has seen no finish below 15th. His 14th-place finish in June was his best at the 2.66-mile track as he looks to finish out his RPM tenure strong.
Richard Petty Motorsports, No. 43 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Wallace has scored the seventh-most points in the 2020 superspeedway races. His 11.3 average finish in this type of racing this season is fifth-best among full-time drivers and has seen no finish below 15th. His 14th-place finish in June was his best at the 2.66-mile track as he looks to finish out his RPM tenure strong.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
16 of 20
View Fullscreen
SLEEPER PICK: Brendan Gaughan | View stats
Beard Motorsports, No. 62 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The Talladega race will mark Gaughan's final start and allows us to give an ode to one of the most unsung, jovial superspeedway racers in recent years. He has three top 10s in his last six starts in this type of racing and is two for three in that regard in 2020. He won't get stage points, but he tends to nab decent finishes.
Beard Motorsports, No. 62 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: The Talladega race will mark Gaughan's final start and allows us to give an ode to one of the most unsung, jovial superspeedway racers in recent years. He has three top 10s in his last six starts in this type of racing and is two for three in that regard in 2020. He won't get stage points, but he tends to nab decent finishes.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
17 of 20
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Kevin Harvick (P) | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Most owners have likely gone heavy on Harvick to open the playoffs. That's fine, as Talladega and the Roval are built-in use savers for the bulk of the studs. This game is about maximizing your uses, and owners are best served to hold Harvick for tracks where his speed is at more of a premium like Kansas and definitely Texas.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Most owners have likely gone heavy on Harvick to open the playoffs. That's fine, as Talladega and the Roval are built-in use savers for the bulk of the studs. This game is about maximizing your uses, and owners are best served to hold Harvick for tracks where his speed is at more of a premium like Kansas and definitely Texas.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
18 of 20
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Similar to our line of thinking on Kevin Harvick, this is where we are on Truex as well. He's more valuable for the bulk of what’s left on the schedule than Sunday at Talladega. He has just two top fives in 31 starts at the 2.66-mile superspeedway and hasn't finished better than 20th in his last eight there. I want much more from the 2017 champ when I use him.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Similar to our line of thinking on Kevin Harvick, this is where we are on Truex as well. He's more valuable for the bulk of what’s left on the schedule than Sunday at Talladega. He has just two top fives in 31 starts at the 2.66-mile superspeedway and hasn't finished better than 20th in his last eight there. I want much more from the 2017 champ when I use him.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
19 of 20
View Fullscreen
STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The reigning champion has been a tough play to figure out in the second half of the season. That said, using him on a superspeedway is an equation I want no part of. He has a 20.7 average finish at Talladega and one top 10 in his last six starts there. He also hasn't finished in the top 30 in any 2020 superspeedway race. I’m looking at the final four races of the season as better fits for him.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: The reigning champion has been a tough play to figure out in the second half of the season. That said, using him on a superspeedway is an equation I want no part of. He has a 20.7 average finish at Talladega and one top 10 in his last six starts there. He also hasn't finished in the top 30 in any 2020 superspeedway race. I’m looking at the final four races of the season as better fits for him.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
20 of 20
View Fullscreen
My lineup heading into the weekend: Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola (P), Kurt Busch (P), Alex Bowman (P), Chris Buescher; Garage: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions before Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Presented By: