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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Digging in the dirt past Larson, Bell for Bristol
By RJ Kraft | Sunday, March 28, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
We're approaching this race as something of a wild card along the lines of Daytona and Talladega, and the commentary and analysis will reflect that mindset.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
We're approaching this race as something of a wild card along the lines of Daytona and Talladega, and the commentary and analysis will reflect that mindset.
PLAY NOW: Set your Fantasy Live lineup today
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-2
Fastlane forecast: Larson's dirt prowess is well documented. He has won back-to-back Chili Bowls and seemingly took home nearly every trophy in every dirt race he ran last summer. So the real question becomes is there a reason not to play Larson? Well, the answer is in his performance on 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, with a win, three top-four finishes and an average of 49.7 points. Just stacking him in bonuses picks is an option in play for me, but we'll see how practice/heat races go.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-2
Fastlane forecast: Larson's dirt prowess is well documented. He has won back-to-back Chili Bowls and seemingly took home nearly every trophy in every dirt race he ran last summer. So the real question becomes is there a reason not to play Larson? Well, the answer is in his performance on 1.5-mile tracks in 2021, with a win, three top-four finishes and an average of 49.7 points. Just stacking him in bonuses picks is an option in play for me, but we'll see how practice/heat races go.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: If Larson is 1A on the big board, Bell is 1B. He is a three-time winner of the Chili Bowl – the biggest dirt-racing midget event in the country. Like Larson, he also has a win at Eldora from his Truck Series days. I haven't used Bell very much, and while he is likely to be a popular play this weekend, it's a play I am comfortable with at that usage available.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: If Larson is 1A on the big board, Bell is 1B. He is a three-time winner of the Chili Bowl – the biggest dirt-racing midget event in the country. Like Larson, he also has a win at Eldora from his Truck Series days. I haven't used Bell very much, and while he is likely to be a popular play this weekend, it's a play I am comfortable with at that usage available.
Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Atlanta has been on a roll these past three races with an average of 48.7 points. Blaney's dirt lineage makes him an intriguing consideration given his father's and uncle’s solid runs on Bristol dirt in the past. YRB also has a top five at Eldora in his Truck days. Given how well he has been of late on intermediates, the thought of holding him out is sound, but he's a tempting play.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Atlanta has been on a roll these past three races with an average of 48.7 points. Blaney's dirt lineage makes him an intriguing consideration given his father's and uncle’s solid runs on Bristol dirt in the past. YRB also has a top five at Eldora in his Truck days. Given how well he has been of late on intermediates, the thought of holding him out is sound, but he's a tempting play.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon is fresh off his first top 10 since the Daytona 500. He had a solid week at the Bristol Dirt Nationals, as he won a Tuesday race and then won the 604 Late Model feature Saturday night. He also won the inaugural race at Eldora in 2013 and was a perfect three-for-three in top 10s there. He's not the first name you think of when it comes to dirt racing, but he has a good record with it.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon is fresh off his first top 10 since the Daytona 500. He had a solid week at the Bristol Dirt Nationals, as he won a Tuesday race and then won the 604 Late Model feature Saturday night. He also won the inaugural race at Eldora in 2013 and was a perfect three-for-three in top 10s there. He's not the first name you think of when it comes to dirt racing, but he has a good record with it.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | View stats
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse is another Cup driver with a dirt background. While he hasn't had the level of success a Larson or Bell has, he shouldn't be forgotten about when it comes to this race. In his ninth full-time season, Stenhouse has quietly put together a nice start to the year – despite no top 10s through six races – he has four straight top-13 finishes on the season.
JTG Daugherty Racing, No. 47 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Stenhouse is another Cup driver with a dirt background. While he hasn't had the level of success a Larson or Bell has, he shouldn't be forgotten about when it comes to this race. In his ninth full-time season, Stenhouse has quietly put together a nice start to the year – despite no top 10s through six races – he has four straight top-13 finishes on the season.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick developed on dirt tracks. His slow start in the Cup season makes him an interesting option from the simple fact that the uses are there. In three starts at Eldora in the Camping World Truck Series, he had two top fives and an average finish of 6.3. I like this play especially as we look to utilize drivers we haven't used as much with dirt backgrounds.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick developed on dirt tracks. His slow start in the Cup season makes him an interesting option from the simple fact that the uses are there. In three starts at Eldora in the Camping World Truck Series, he had two top fives and an average finish of 6.3. I like this play especially as we look to utilize drivers we haven't used as much with dirt backgrounds.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman began his career racing midgets on dirt, and it's something that remains a passion for him with his own team. He's coming off his best finish of the season – third at Atlanta – as he showed the intermediate speed that made him a great play late in 2020. Given his up-and-down start to the year, though, the uses should be on the table to deploy a play.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 20-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman began his career racing midgets on dirt, and it's something that remains a passion for him with his own team. He's coming off his best finish of the season – third at Atlanta – as he showed the intermediate speed that made him a great play late in 2020. Given his up-and-down start to the year, though, the uses should be on the table to deploy a play.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Chase Briscoe | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Briscoe's rookie season isn't off to the start he would have hoped for – no finish better than 18th. However, he has one of the better dirt backgrounds in the Cup Series as a third-generation dirt racer. He was a winner at Eldora in 2018 in a tight finish with Grant Enfinger. In three starts there, he never finished worse than seventh. Similar to Reddick, there are plenty of uses available to make this play.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Briscoe's rookie season isn't off to the start he would have hoped for – no finish better than 18th. However, he has one of the better dirt backgrounds in the Cup Series as a third-generation dirt racer. He was a winner at Eldora in 2018 in a tight finish with Grant Enfinger. In three starts there, he never finished worse than seventh. Similar to Reddick, there are plenty of uses available to make this play.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ryan Newman | View stats
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman is as blue collar, grind-it-out as they come, and that will be needed in Sunday's race. His lengthy racing career includes coming up through Silver Crown cars and USAC Midgets, and he finished third in the first race at Eldora. We are treating this race like a superspeedway in terms of uses and given his skill set, Newman fits the bill as a roster option given the abundance of uses.
Roush Fenway Racing, No. 6 Ford
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: Newman is as blue collar, grind-it-out as they come, and that will be needed in Sunday's race. His lengthy racing career includes coming up through Silver Crown cars and USAC Midgets, and he finished third in the first race at Eldora. We are treating this race like a superspeedway in terms of uses and given his skill set, Newman fits the bill as a roster option given the abundance of uses.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Bubba Wallace | View stats
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: The recent weeks have been a bit more promising – back-to-back 16th-place showings portend speed that wasn't there in the first few weeks. Don't sleep on Wallace on the dirt. He won at Eldora in 2014 and notched two top-seven finishes in as many starts there. He'll also run the Truck dirt race for more seat time.
23XI Racing, No. 23 Toyota
Odds: 18-1
Fastlane forecast: The recent weeks have been a bit more promising – back-to-back 16th-place showings portend speed that wasn't there in the first few weeks. Don't sleep on Wallace on the dirt. He won at Eldora in 2014 and notched two top-seven finishes in as many starts there. He'll also run the Truck dirt race for more seat time.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Stewart Friesen | View stats
Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Friesen is one of several dirt ringers making their Cup debut in this race – we'll cover another one in here as well. The Camping World Truck Series veteran has cut his teeth on dirt tracks around the country. In his last three starts at Eldora, he won the final race run there and had three top-three finishes.
Spire Motorsports, No. 77 Chevrolet
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Friesen is one of several dirt ringers making their Cup debut in this race – we'll cover another one in here as well. The Camping World Truck Series veteran has cut his teeth on dirt tracks around the country. In his last three starts at Eldora, he won the final race run there and had three top-three finishes.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Chris Windom | View stats
Rick Ware Racing, No. 15 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Windom, like Mike Marlar and Shane Golobic, will be making his Cup debut. Windom was the seventh driver to win the USAC Triple Crown with a 2016 Silver Crown Championship, 2017 Sprint Car Championship and a 2020 Midget Championship. He's quite accomplished at dirt racing and an under-the radar option.
Rick Ware Racing, No. 15 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Windom, like Mike Marlar and Shane Golobic, will be making his Cup debut. Windom was the seventh driver to win the USAC Triple Crown with a 2016 Silver Crown Championship, 2017 Sprint Car Championship and a 2020 Midget Championship. He's quite accomplished at dirt racing and an under-the radar option.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has arguably been the most consistent driver to open the season. He has the most points and five top fives in six races. With Martinsville and Richmond lurking – two tracks he has strong histories at – as well as his all-around value, I'm strongly advocating avoiding Hamlin for this weekend's race.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin has arguably been the most consistent driver to open the season. He has the most points and five top fives in six races. With Martinsville and Richmond lurking – two tracks he has strong histories at – as well as his all-around value, I'm strongly advocating avoiding Hamlin for this weekend's race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: We've written here in the past about best managing your starts when it comes to the stud drivers. Elliott is another example of that. I'd rather have him available for the slew of road courses on the schedule, Kansas, Dover, Michigan, etc, than a wild-card race where seemingly anything can happen out there. Martin Truex Jr. falls in the same category for me.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: We've written here in the past about best managing your starts when it comes to the stud drivers. Elliott is another example of that. I'd rather have him available for the slew of road courses on the schedule, Kansas, Dover, Michigan, etc, than a wild-card race where seemingly anything can happen out there. Martin Truex Jr. falls in the same category for me.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the driver to hoard for the 750 HP, but given the unpredictability of the dirt race, this is one we'd avoid. The 2012 champ is best served for uses at Martinsville, Richmond, Darlington, Dover and New Hampshire to name just a few tracks. Coincidentally, four of those are in the six races after Bristol.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski is the driver to hoard for the 750 HP, but given the unpredictability of the dirt race, this is one we'd avoid. The 2012 champ is best served for uses at Martinsville, Richmond, Darlington, Dover and New Hampshire to name just a few tracks. Coincidentally, four of those are in the six races after Bristol.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has been one of the best cars on 1.5-mile tracks in the early going as he has one win (Miami), three top 10s and an average of 44.3 points in those races. The early evidence says hoard his uses for the intermediate tracks, and so with that in mind, we are avoiding the play here.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: Byron has been one of the best cars on 1.5-mile tracks in the early going as he has one win (Miami), three top 10s and an average of 44.3 points in those races. The early evidence says hoard his uses for the intermediate tracks, and so with that in mind, we are avoiding the play here.
Bristol Motor Speedway
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Christopher Bell, Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Alex Bowman; Garage: Chase Briscoe
Just missed the cut for now: Kyle Larson*, Ryan Newman, Bubba Wallace and Stewart Friesen.
* I am still inclined to save Kyle Larson for reasons I wrote about earlier, while stacking bonus picks with him. If I had nine or 10 uses left with him, I'd throw him in. At six or seven left, I'm trending toward the save based on my belief this race could be of a wild-card nature. Maybe that play is too safe, but his performance so far in 2021 to me says his uses need to be highly valued.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Sunday for the final lineup. I'll be evaluating practices and the heat races to see how the cars will race and how much risk I want to take with my lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions.
Just missed the cut for now: Kyle Larson*, Ryan Newman, Bubba Wallace and Stewart Friesen.
* I am still inclined to save Kyle Larson for reasons I wrote about earlier, while stacking bonus picks with him. If I had nine or 10 uses left with him, I'd throw him in. At six or seven left, I'm trending toward the save based on my belief this race could be of a wild-card nature. Maybe that play is too safe, but his performance so far in 2021 to me says his uses need to be highly valued.
Check back for our "Fantasy Update" piece Sunday for the final lineup. I'll be evaluating practices and the heat races to see how the cars will race and how much risk I want to take with my lineup. Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions.
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