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Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races: Time to use Kyle Busch at Phoenix
By RJ Kraft | Friday, March 12, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the most recent winner at Phoenix as it was the site of his 2020 title victory. With this rules package in 2020, Elliott had the fourth-most points, four straight races with at least 40 points and led 246 of a possible 628 laps (40 percent) at Phoenix. I've been conservative on my Elliott uses early, so I am planning to deploy him here.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the most recent winner at Phoenix as it was the site of his 2020 title victory. With this rules package in 2020, Elliott had the fourth-most points, four straight races with at least 40 points and led 246 of a possible 628 laps (40 percent) at Phoenix. I've been conservative on my Elliott uses early, so I am planning to deploy him here.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's Phoenix record includes two wins, 14 top fives and 18 top 10s in 31 starts. He also has the fourth-most points at the 1-mile track over the last four races there –- an average of 36.8. The puzzling factor with him is his stats with this rules package produced just the seventh-most points and only three top fives –- but one of those was Phoenix last fall.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's Phoenix record includes two wins, 14 top fives and 18 top 10s in 31 starts. He also has the fourth-most points at the 1-mile track over the last four races there –- an average of 36.8. The puzzling factor with him is his stats with this rules package produced just the seventh-most points and only three top fives –- but one of those was Phoenix last fall.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski was THE dude with this rules package in 2020. Three of his four wins came at tracks under 1.1 miles and he averaged 35.5 points in the Phoenix races. Fresh off a runner-up at Las Vegas, Keselowski will start on the pole. I have him budgeted for most of the tracks where this package will be used (Martinsville, Richmond, New Hampshire).
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski was THE dude with this rules package in 2020. Three of his four wins came at tracks under 1.1 miles and he averaged 35.5 points in the Phoenix races. Fresh off a runner-up at Las Vegas, Keselowski will start on the pole. I have him budgeted for most of the tracks where this package will be used (Martinsville, Richmond, New Hampshire).
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: The Cactus King has nine wins at Phoenix –- the last coming in 2018 -- and hasn't finished outside the top 10 there since the spring 2013 race –- a stretch of 15 races in the desert. It's been a weird stretch for Harvick in 2021 as he struggled at Las Vegas and was not as much of a factor as expected in Miami. You could zag and stay away from Harvick given the recent '21 struggles, but perhaps a garage stash is the wisest course.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: The Cactus King has nine wins at Phoenix –- the last coming in 2018 -- and hasn't finished outside the top 10 there since the spring 2013 race –- a stretch of 15 races in the desert. It's been a weird stretch for Harvick in 2021 as he struggled at Las Vegas and was not as much of a factor as expected in Miami. You could zag and stay away from Harvick given the recent '21 struggles, but perhaps a garage stash is the wisest course.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Joey Logano | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Phoenix with the most recent one coming in this race last year. He has four straight top 10s at the 1-mile track, had the best average finish (2.0) in last year's races at this track and scored the most points here (average of 43). He also scored the most points with this rules package in 2020. The concern is he's been pretty streaky here.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has two wins at Phoenix with the most recent one coming in this race last year. He has four straight top 10s at the 1-mile track, had the best average finish (2.0) in last year's races at this track and scored the most points here (average of 43). He also scored the most points with this rules package in 2020. The concern is he's been pretty streaky here.
Brian Lawdermilk | Getty Images
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Kyle Larson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Las Vegas could make it two in a row based on his recent Phoenix runs. Larson has three top-four finishes in his last four Arizona starts and five such finishes in his last eight starts there. On one hand, there's something to be said about riding the hot hand. On the other, his speed at the 1.5-milers makes him an option to hold out.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 10-1
Fastlane forecast: Last weekend's winner at Las Vegas could make it two in a row based on his recent Phoenix runs. Larson has three top-four finishes in his last four Arizona starts and five such finishes in his last eight starts there. On one hand, there's something to be said about riding the hot hand. On the other, his speed at the 1.5-milers makes him an option to hold out.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Phoenix is the two-time champion’s third-best regular-season track on average finish (10.5). Busch has three wins here and also has nine top-four finishes in his last 11 starts at the 1-miler. Over the last four races here, he has the most points -- an average of 41.5. He also is finding his footing with new crew chief Ben Beshore with two straight top 10s in 2021.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Phoenix is the two-time champion’s third-best regular-season track on average finish (10.5). Busch has three wins here and also has nine top-four finishes in his last 11 starts at the 1-miler. Over the last four races here, he has the most points -- an average of 41.5. He also is finding his footing with new crew chief Ben Beshore with two straight top 10s in 2021.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has just one Cup win at Phoenix in 36 starts, but he does have 20 top 10s in that time. In the last six races there, he has five top-12 finishes. That is good enough for the ninth-most points there. If you are looking to save a bigger name like a Hamlin or Elliott, the 2004 champion is a solid pivot play to make for your rosters.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has just one Cup win at Phoenix in 36 starts, but he does have 20 top 10s in that time. In the last six races there, he has five top-12 finishes. That is good enough for the ninth-most points there. If you are looking to save a bigger name like a Hamlin or Elliott, the 2004 champion is a solid pivot play to make for your rosters.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is fresh off his first top five of the season. And now he comes to a Phoenix track where he has three top-six finishes in his last four races there. In that same stretch, he has the fifth-most points at the 1-mile track -- which is more than Elliott, Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. He's an interesting consideration for this weekend's race.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney is fresh off his first top five of the season. And now he comes to a Phoenix track where he has three top-six finishes in his last four races there. In that same stretch, he has the fifth-most points at the 1-mile track -- which is more than Elliott, Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. He's an interesting consideration for this weekend's race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, calling a 2021 winner with two straight top-eight finishes a sleeper is a little bit of a stretch. But we are doing so because his Phoenix numbers just might surprise you. He was one of four drivers with top 10s in both races here last year and he has three in six starts there.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Admittedly, calling a 2021 winner with two straight top-eight finishes a sleeper is a little bit of a stretch. But we are doing so because his Phoenix numbers just might surprise you. He was one of four drivers with top 10s in both races here last year and he has three in six starts there.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's Xfinity body of work at Phoenix (one win, three top fives in five starts) didn't translate over to the Cup Series in 2020 as he had an average finish of 20.5. He may be a bit up-and-down still, but the sophomore driver continues to make strides as he comes into this race off a top 10 at Las Vegas.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's Xfinity body of work at Phoenix (one win, three top fives in five starts) didn't translate over to the Cup Series in 2020 as he had an average finish of 20.5. He may be a bit up-and-down still, but the sophomore driver continues to make strides as he comes into this race off a top 10 at Las Vegas.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto's 16th-place finish at Las Vegas was a step in the right direction after a rough start to 2021. DiBenedetto has three straight top-13 finishes at Phoenix, including an eighth-place run last fall. With this rules package in 2020, he had the 12th-most points with four top 10s.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 66-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto's 16th-place finish at Las Vegas was a step in the right direction after a rough start to 2021. DiBenedetto has three straight top-13 finishes at Phoenix, including an eighth-place run last fall. With this rules package in 2020, he had the 12th-most points with four top 10s.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 season has gotten off to a rough start for Almirola with three finishes of 30th or worse in the first four races. Phoenix represents a solid chance for him to turn the tide as he has five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts there and the eighth-most points over the last six races.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: The 2021 season has gotten off to a rough start for Almirola with three finishes of 30th or worse in the first four races. Phoenix represents a solid chance for him to turn the tide as he has five top-10 finishes in his last seven starts there and the eighth-most points over the last six races.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's fall 2016 run at Phoenix –- where he led 194 laps from the pole –- was his coming-out party. However, that performance is the outlier on his Phoenix stat sheet. He has six finishes in a row outside the top 10, and three of those finishes have been outside the top 20.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman's fall 2016 run at Phoenix –- where he led 194 laps from the pole –- was his coming-out party. However, that performance is the outlier on his Phoenix stat sheet. He has six finishes in a row outside the top 10, and three of those finishes have been outside the top 20.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In 14 starts at Phoenix, Dillon has two top 10s. In his last four starts there, his best finish is 18th. His 21.5 average finish at the 1-mile track is his worst on a non-road course on the circuit. This is a play to just flat avoid as you build out your rosters for the weekend.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: In 14 starts at Phoenix, Dillon has two top 10s. In his last four starts there, his best finish is 18th. His 21.5 average finish at the 1-mile track is his worst on a non-road course on the circuit. This is a play to just flat avoid as you build out your rosters for the weekend.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex's recent numbers at Phoenix are more than respectable -- three top fives (of his four here) and five top 10s in his last seven starts there. For me, this is about the value proposition of the use. I find the 2017 champion to be of more value at Atlanta, Richmond, Darlington, Dover, New Hampshire and a slew of road courses.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 12-1
Fastlane forecast: Truex's recent numbers at Phoenix are more than respectable -- three top fives (of his four here) and five top 10s in his last seven starts there. For me, this is about the value proposition of the use. I find the 2017 champion to be of more value at Atlanta, Richmond, Darlington, Dover, New Hampshire and a slew of road courses.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson; Garage: Kevin Harvick.
Just missed the roster: Joey Logano (a lot of uses for me early on), Kurt Busch, William Byron and Ryan Blaney.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Just missed the roster: Joey Logano (a lot of uses for me early on), Kurt Busch, William Byron and Ryan Blaney.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
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