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Fantasy Fastlane: Heavy on the playoff performers at Martinsville
By RJ Kraft | Friday, October 29, 2021
NASCAR Digital Media
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane presented by Jackpot Races will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. Odds come from BetMGM.
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*Note: Traditional tracks this season that are less than 0.8-miles are both Richmond races, the spring Martinsville race and the Bristol playoff race.
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*Note: Traditional tracks this season that are less than 0.8-miles are both Richmond races, the spring Martinsville race and the Bristol playoff race.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's five wins at Martinsville are the most among the field. While none of those have come since 2015, he does have four top-five finishes in his last six races there. On traditional tracks that are less than 0.8-miles, he has scored the most points – an average of 52.3 points. And as numberFire’s Jim Sannes tweeted on Monday, Hamlin has the best average running position on short, flat tracks in 2021 at 4.2. There's no reason not to use him if you have a use available.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 6-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's five wins at Martinsville are the most among the field. While none of those have come since 2015, he does have four top-five finishes in his last six races there. On traditional tracks that are less than 0.8-miles, he has scored the most points – an average of 52.3 points. And as numberFire’s Jim Sannes tweeted on Monday, Hamlin has the best average running position on short, flat tracks in 2021 at 4.2. There's no reason not to use him if you have a use available.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the defending race winner at Martinsville and has three top fives there in his last three starts. His points position leaves him needing a solid points day – something that is attainable for the driver with the most points at Martinsville over the last three races (an average of 48.7 points). If you are down to one use, spend it here as he will be likely to advance to the Championship 4 and thus not receive stage points.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: Elliott is the defending race winner at Martinsville and has three top fives there in his last three starts. His points position leaves him needing a solid points day – something that is attainable for the driver with the most points at Martinsville over the last three races (an average of 48.7 points). If you are down to one use, spend it here as he will be likely to advance to the Championship 4 and thus not receive stage points.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Martin Truex Jr. (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: After years of the talk about how Truex couldn't close the deal at short tracks, he now has three Martinsville wins in his last four starts there including a victory this spring. He also has six top-five finishes in his last eight starts there. At minus-3 to the elimination line, a really good points day won't for certain put him in the Championship 4 but it does help his chances. He won one of the other two short-track races this postseason (at Richmond).
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 4-1
Fastlane forecast: After years of the talk about how Truex couldn't close the deal at short tracks, he now has three Martinsville wins in his last four starts there including a victory this spring. He also has six top-five finishes in his last eight starts there. At minus-3 to the elimination line, a really good points day won't for certain put him in the Championship 4 but it does help his chances. He won one of the other two short-track races this postseason (at Richmond).
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Ryan Blaney (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney may be the best performing driver at Martinsville who has yet to win there. He has four top fives in his last five starts -- the lone finish outside the top five came in the spring when he led 157 laps and won the first two stages. In those races, he scored no fewer than 42 points. For the season on short, flat tracks, he has the second-best average running position (6.8), per Jim Sannes of numberFire. At minus-1 to the elimination line, he can't afford a zero stage point day.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 7-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney may be the best performing driver at Martinsville who has yet to win there. He has four top fives in his last five starts -- the lone finish outside the top five came in the spring when he led 157 laps and won the first two stages. In those races, he scored no fewer than 42 points. For the season on short, flat tracks, he has the second-best average running position (6.8), per Jim Sannes of numberFire. At minus-1 to the elimination line, he can't afford a zero stage point day.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has by and large been a consistent top-10 performer during his time at Penske. In 17 starts with Penske here, he has a win, seven top fives and 11 top 10s. Over the last three Martinsville races, he has the fourth-most points (average of 42.3 points) and the fourth-most points on traditional tracks under 0.8 miles (average of 38.8 points). My initial thought was to hold him back at one use since he's minus-26 to the elimination line but he's better on this rules package than most.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Logano has by and large been a consistent top-10 performer during his time at Penske. In 17 starts with Penske here, he has a win, seven top fives and 11 top 10s. Over the last three Martinsville races, he has the fourth-most points (average of 42.3 points) and the fourth-most points on traditional tracks under 0.8 miles (average of 38.8 points). My initial thought was to hold him back at one use since he's minus-26 to the elimination line but he's better on this rules package than most.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kyle Busch (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two wins at Martinsville in his Cup career and had a run of eight straight top-five finishes from 2015 to 2019. Since that run ended, he’s had two top 10s and just five laps led. On traditional tracks that are less than 0.8-miles, he has the 11th-most points at an even average of 30 points – the second-lowest among the remaining playoff field and a best finish of eighth. At one use, I'm tempted to save him for Phoenix even as he sits plus-1 on the elimination line.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 9-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has two wins at Martinsville in his Cup career and had a run of eight straight top-five finishes from 2015 to 2019. Since that run ended, he’s had two top 10s and just five laps led. On traditional tracks that are less than 0.8-miles, he has the 11th-most points at an even average of 30 points – the second-lowest among the remaining playoff field and a best finish of eighth. At one use, I'm tempted to save him for Phoenix even as he sits plus-1 on the elimination line.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins at Martinsville and prior to his 33rd-place finish in the spring had a run of nine top fives in the past 10 races there. The 2012 champion has been making gains on the 750-package all year after a 2020 season where he was one of the best with that setup. Keselowski's 11.2 average finish at Martinsville is the third-best in Sunday's field. The concern is similar to Busch – a lack of significant points on traditional tracks under 0.8 miles – he ranks 12th on the season.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has two wins at Martinsville and prior to his 33rd-place finish in the spring had a run of nine top fives in the past 10 races there. The 2012 champion has been making gains on the 750-package all year after a 2020 season where he was one of the best with that setup. Keselowski's 11.2 average finish at Martinsville is the third-best in Sunday's field. The concern is similar to Busch – a lack of significant points on traditional tracks under 0.8 miles – he ranks 12th on the season.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Since his playoff elimination, Byron has posted back-to-back 50-point days and looked to be en route to a Kansas win before a pit road penalty derailed his run in the final stage. The young driver has two top fives and three top 10s in his last four Martinsville starts. Among non-playoff drivers, he has the most points scored on traditional tracks that are 0.8-miles or shorter this season. He's a solid option if you are out of several playoff drivers.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 14-1
Fastlane forecast: Since his playoff elimination, Byron has posted back-to-back 50-point days and looked to be en route to a Kansas win before a pit road penalty derailed his run in the final stage. The young driver has two top fives and three top 10s in his last four Martinsville starts. Among non-playoff drivers, he has the most points scored on traditional tracks that are 0.8-miles or shorter this season. He's a solid option if you are out of several playoff drivers.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick comes into this race running strong since his elimination with back-to-back top fives. The 2014 champ has been better for the bulk of this season on the 750-horsepower tracks (Martinsville falls in that rules package) and he has the eighth-most points this season on tracks under 0.8-miles. Yet, he only has one win and five top fives in 40 Martinsville Cup starts. He does have six top 10s in his last eight starts here (and 20 top 10s on his Cup resume here).
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Harvick comes into this race running strong since his elimination with back-to-back top fives. The 2014 champ has been better for the bulk of this season on the 750-horsepower tracks (Martinsville falls in that rules package) and he has the eighth-most points this season on tracks under 0.8-miles. Yet, he only has one win and five top fives in 40 Martinsville Cup starts. He does have six top 10s in his last eight starts here (and 20 top 10s on his Cup resume here).
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Christopher Bell | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's lone top 10 at Martinsville came in his most recent start there. Traditional tracks under 0.8-miles are right in the young driver’s comfort zone as he has three top 10s in four such races this season and the ninth-most points in those races. He enters this race with four straight top 10s on the season and an average of 32.5 points in that stretch.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 20 Toyota
Odds: 25-1
Fastlane forecast: Bell's lone top 10 at Martinsville came in his most recent start there. Traditional tracks under 0.8-miles are right in the young driver’s comfort zone as he has three top 10s in four such races this season and the ninth-most points in those races. He enters this race with four straight top 10s on the season and an average of 32.5 points in that stretch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has two sixth-place finishes in his last three Martinsville starts and that gives him the sixth-most points over that stretch at the Virginia short track. He has one short-track win this season and has scored the 10th-most points on traditional tracks under 0.8-miles this season. The concern is a recent cold spell – one top 10 in his last five races.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 33-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowman has two sixth-place finishes in his last three Martinsville starts and that gives him the sixth-most points over that stretch at the Virginia short track. He has one short-track win this season and has scored the 10th-most points on traditional tracks under 0.8-miles this season. The concern is a recent cold spell – one top 10 in his last five races.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Matt DiBenedetto | View stats
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto's last three Martinsville starts have produced three top-12 finishes with two top 10s in that stretch. That gives him the ninth-most points at the track over that span. On traditional tracks under 0.8-miles, he has the 14th-most points. The concern: He has just one race of over 30 points in his last nine races this season.
Wood Brothers Racing, No. 21 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: DiBenedetto's last three Martinsville starts have produced three top-12 finishes with two top 10s in that stretch. That gives him the ninth-most points at the track over that span. On traditional tracks under 0.8-miles, he has the 14th-most points. The concern: He has just one race of over 30 points in his last nine races this season.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Ross Chastain | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: The 750-horsepower package has been a strong point for Chastain this season. It's the same package that was used in his strong road course runs as well as his seventh-place run at Richmond in September. On traditional tracks under 0.8-miles, he has the 13th-most points scored and the 14th-best average finish this season.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 42 Chevrolet
Odds: 125-1
Fastlane forecast: The 750-horsepower package has been a strong point for Chastain this season. It's the same package that was used in his strong road course runs as well as his seventh-place run at Richmond in September. On traditional tracks under 0.8-miles, he has the 13th-most points scored and the 14th-best average finish this season.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Larson (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: In all honesty, you should be out of Larson uses at this point. But if you are not, his Martinsville numbers suggest saving him for Phoenix even knowing you can't get stage points from him. In 13 starts at the Virginia short track, he has just three top 10s and an average finish of 21.1. His fifth-place run there in the spring was his first top five at the track since 2016.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 5 Chevrolet
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: In all honesty, you should be out of Larson uses at this point. But if you are not, his Martinsville numbers suggest saving him for Phoenix even knowing you can't get stage points from him. In 13 starts at the Virginia short track, he has just three top 10s and an average finish of 21.1. His fifth-place run there in the spring was his first top five at the track since 2016.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's resume at Martinsville includes two wins with the most recent coming in 2014. Of late, he does have four top 10s in his last six starts there. The major concern besides the 19.8 average finish at "The Paperclip" is the 22.5 average finish with no top 10s on tracks under 0.8-miles long this year. He's an option next week but an avoid this week.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch's resume at Martinsville includes two wins with the most recent coming in 2014. Of late, he does have four top 10s in his last six starts there. The major concern besides the 19.8 average finish at "The Paperclip" is the 22.5 average finish with no top 10s on tracks under 0.8-miles long this year. He's an option next week but an avoid this week.
Sean Gardner | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's last three Martinsville starts have seen him post an average finish of 24.7 – the 26th-best mark in the series over that stretch. He only has two top 10s (both were actually top fives) but the last of those came in 2017 and since then he has five finishes outside the top 20 in his last eight runs there.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's last three Martinsville starts have seen him post an average finish of 24.7 – the 26th-best mark in the series over that stretch. He only has two top 10s (both were actually top fives) but the last of those came in 2017 and since then he has five finishes outside the top 20 in his last eight runs there.
James Gilbert | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano/Kyle Busch; Garage: Brad Keselowski
Just missed the cut: One of Joey Logano/Kyle Busch, William Byron, Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell
The biggest thing I am continuing to weigh is whether keeping Logano back for Phoenix since he likely needs to win at Martinsville to advance is a better move than holding back Busch who has not performed as well at 750-horsepower tracks but is in a better points position.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
Just missed the cut: One of Joey Logano/Kyle Busch, William Byron, Kevin Harvick and Christopher Bell
The biggest thing I am continuing to weigh is whether keeping Logano back for Phoenix since he likely needs to win at Martinsville to advance is a better move than holding back Busch who has not performed as well at 750-horsepower tracks but is in a better points position.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 2 p.m. ET on NBC.
Download the free-to-play Jackpot Races App and compete to win the $25,000 prize every week if you get all eight picks correct.
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