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Fantasy Fastlane: Bullish on Busch and Blaney at Phoenix
By RJ Kraft | Friday, November 6, 2020
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Editor's note: Fantasy Fastlane will look at each race from a fantasy perspective, examining the top plays and sleepers as well as plays to avoid for NASCAR Fantasy Live. Garage driver will lock at end of Stage 2. The Championship 4 drivers will not score stage points at Phoenix. Odds come from BetMGM.
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Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
2 of 19
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Denny Hamlin (P) | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's inconsistent playoffs nearly cost him a spot in the Championship 4 but he will race for the title at Phoenix. He has just two top fives in the nine playoff races. The bigger flag for this race specifically is his 14.1 average finish with the 2020 short-track package (11th-best among the field). His record at Phoenix has been solid of late, including a win last fall.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 11 Toyota
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: Hamlin's inconsistent playoffs nearly cost him a spot in the Championship 4 but he will race for the title at Phoenix. He has just two top fives in the nine playoff races. The bigger flag for this race specifically is his 14.1 average finish with the 2020 short-track package (11th-best among the field). His record at Phoenix has been solid of late, including a win last fall.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
3 of 19
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Chase Elliott (P) | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: I had two Elliott uses going into Martinsville and thought I was in a prime spot with him. But as a Championship 4 driver, he won't get stage points at Phoenix. That said, he'll still be in my lineup. He's been in the most consistent car this entire playoffs and he has the fourth-most points with the 2020 short-track package this year.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 9 Chevrolet
Odds: 5-1
Fastlane forecast: I had two Elliott uses going into Martinsville and thought I was in a prime spot with him. But as a Championship 4 driver, he won't get stage points at Phoenix. That said, he'll still be in my lineup. He's been in the most consistent car this entire playoffs and he has the fourth-most points with the 2020 short-track package this year.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
4 of 19
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Brad Keselowski (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has scored the third-most points with the 2020 short-track rules package – an average of 40.3. His 8.0 average finish is also third-best in the series with this rules package. The 2012 champion has not yet won at Phoenix but led 82 laps there in March and won a stage. I have a use left on Keselowski so I'll be playing him despite no stage points as a Championship 4 driver.
Team Penske, No. 2 Ford
Odds: 11-2
Fastlane forecast: Keselowski has scored the third-most points with the 2020 short-track rules package – an average of 40.3. His 8.0 average finish is also third-best in the series with this rules package. The 2012 champion has not yet won at Phoenix but led 82 laps there in March and won a stage. I have a use left on Keselowski so I'll be playing him despite no stage points as a Championship 4 driver.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
5 of 19
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Joey Logano (P) | View stats
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: The most recent of Logano's two Phoenix wins came this spring. One of the keys to Logano's success this season has been his results with the 2020 short-track package. The 2018 champion has the most points with it this season – an average of 42.8 points – and the best average finish (6.8). His five top fives with this rules package are tied for the most in the series.
Team Penske, No. 22 Ford
Odds: 13-2
Fastlane forecast: The most recent of Logano's two Phoenix wins came this spring. One of the keys to Logano's success this season has been his results with the 2020 short-track package. The 2018 champion has the most points with it this season – an average of 42.8 points – and the best average finish (6.8). His five top fives with this rules package are tied for the most in the series.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
6 of 19
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Kevin Harvick | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: The shock of the playoffs is Harvick not being part of the Championship 4. Most of us based a usage strategy off of him being in the title race and not eligible for stage points there. So I'll put this simply – if you have a Harvick use left, PLAY HIM. His numbers at Phoenix are well known – nine wins, 14 straight top 10s with 12 top fives in that stretch.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 4 Ford
Odds: 7-2
Fastlane forecast: The shock of the playoffs is Harvick not being part of the Championship 4. Most of us based a usage strategy off of him being in the title race and not eligible for stage points there. So I'll put this simply – if you have a Harvick use left, PLAY HIM. His numbers at Phoenix are well known – nine wins, 14 straight top 10s with 12 top fives in that stretch.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
7 of 19
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Martin Truex Jr. | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Phoenix hasn't been a good track for Truex in his Cup career. He has four top fives and 11 top 10s in 29 starts. He does have five top fives with the short-track rules package. That said, since he will not be in the Championship 4, he will get stage points and that makes him a must play if you have a use left. Leave no uses behind for the top drivers.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 19 Toyota
Odds: 11-1
Fastlane forecast: Phoenix hasn't been a good track for Truex in his Cup career. He has four top fives and 11 top 10s in 29 starts. He does have five top fives with the short-track rules package. That said, since he will not be in the Championship 4, he will get stage points and that makes him a must play if you have a use left. Leave no uses behind for the top drivers.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
8 of 19
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Kyle Busch | View stats
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last five races at Phoenix, Busch has finished no worse than third and has two wins as well. That's an average of 50.6 points over that stretch. He also has a run of 10 straight top-seven finishes. Since he is out of the playoffs, he will receive stage points if he earns them. That makes him a very valuable play to make this weekend.
Joe Gibbs Racing, No. 18 Toyota
Odds: 8-1
Fastlane forecast: In the last five races at Phoenix, Busch has finished no worse than third and has two wins as well. That's an average of 50.6 points over that stretch. He also has a run of 10 straight top-seven finishes. Since he is out of the playoffs, he will receive stage points if he earns them. That makes him a very valuable play to make this weekend.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
9 of 19
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Ryan Blaney | View stats
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney's overall Phoenix numbers are full of peaks and valleys. He has two third-place finishes in his last three races there, but he also has just two other top 10s in his other seven starts at the 1-mile track. There is something to be said about momentum – Blaney has scored at least 40 points in five of the last six 2020 races and leads the series in stage points.
Team Penske, No. 12 Ford
Odds: 16-1
Fastlane forecast: Blaney's overall Phoenix numbers are full of peaks and valleys. He has two third-place finishes in his last three races there, but he also has just two other top 10s in his other seven starts at the 1-mile track. There is something to be said about momentum – Blaney has scored at least 40 points in five of the last six 2020 races and leads the series in stage points.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
10 of 19
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Alex Bowman | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: This is a play where I am placing A LOT more stock in recent trends in 2020 as opposed to career Phoenix numbers. Bowman has just one top 10 in 10 Phoenix starts and only three top 15s. Over the nine playoff races, Bowman has scored the second-most points --- an average of 37.4 points with no total less than 33 points at the non-superspeedways.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 88 Chevrolet
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: This is a play where I am placing A LOT more stock in recent trends in 2020 as opposed to career Phoenix numbers. Bowman has just one top 10 in 10 Phoenix starts and only three top 15s. Over the nine playoff races, Bowman has scored the second-most points --- an average of 37.4 points with no total less than 33 points at the non-superspeedways.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
11 of 19
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Kurt Busch | View stats
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has four top-11 finishes in his last five Phoenix races and he has scored the eighth-most points among drivers in Sunday's field over that stretch. Over his last four races with the 2020 short-track package, the 2004 champion has averaged 31.8 points. This is a solid play to make to close out the season.
Chip Ganassi Racing, No. 1 Chevrolet
Odds: 35-1
Fastlane forecast: Busch has four top-11 finishes in his last five Phoenix races and he has scored the eighth-most points among drivers in Sunday's field over that stretch. Over his last four races with the 2020 short-track package, the 2004 champion has averaged 31.8 points. This is a solid play to make to close out the season.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Aric Almirola | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has four top 10s in his last five Phoenix starts – only Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have more in that stretch of races at the 1-mile track. He has the sixth-most points over that span – an average of 31.6 points. In the three playoff races with the 2020 short-track package, the veteran has an average of 32.7 points.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 10 Ford
Odds: 40-1
Fastlane forecast: Almirola has four top 10s in his last five Phoenix starts – only Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have more in that stretch of races at the 1-mile track. He has the sixth-most points over that span – an average of 31.6 points. In the three playoff races with the 2020 short-track package, the veteran has an average of 32.7 points.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
13 of 19
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SLEEPER PICK: Clint Bowyer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has the fourth-best average finish (9.8) in 2020 with the short-track rules package. He also has the eighth-most points in those races – an average of 32.2 points. Heading into his final full-time start, he has three top 10s and four top 11s in his last five Phoenix starts. I like Almirola a little more as a play but Bowyer is still a worthy consideration.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 14 Ford
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Bowyer has the fourth-best average finish (9.8) in 2020 with the short-track rules package. He also has the eighth-most points in those races – an average of 32.2 points. Heading into his final full-time start, he has three top 10s and four top 11s in his last five Phoenix starts. I like Almirola a little more as a play but Bowyer is still a worthy consideration.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Tyler Reddick | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick's 33rd-place finish in the Phoenix spring race won't grab you but he did score nine stage points before a late-race crash. He was also the seventh-fastest car on green flag speed in the race, per NASCAR loop data. His short-track stats for the year have been up and down but if you are looking for an off-the-board play, this is a good one to consider.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 8 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Reddick's 33rd-place finish in the Phoenix spring race won't grab you but he did score nine stage points before a late-race crash. He was also the seventh-fastest car on green flag speed in the race, per NASCAR loop data. His short-track stats for the year have been up and down but if you are looking for an off-the-board play, this is a good one to consider.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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SLEEPER PICK: Cole Custer | View stats
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer's first top 10 in the Cup ranks came at Phoenix in March. In fact, he has top 10s in three of the four races run at the 1-mile-range tracks with an average of 28.5 points. He is finishing his rookie season in solid fashion with four top 15s in as many races including a 13th-place result last weekend at Martinsville.
Stewart-Haas Racing, No. 41 Ford
Odds: 80-1
Fastlane forecast: Custer's first top 10 in the Cup ranks came at Phoenix in March. In fact, he has top 10s in three of the four races run at the 1-mile-range tracks with an average of 28.5 points. He is finishing his rookie season in solid fashion with four top 15s in as many races including a 13th-place result last weekend at Martinsville.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: William Byron | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In Byron's last three races with the 2020 short-track rules package, he has finished outside the top 20 each time and totaled just 25 points. He does have two top 10s in five Phoenix starts but he also has two finishes outside the top 15. I'd rather roll the dice on a driver who has had longer stretches of consistency of late like his Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 24 Chevrolet
Odds: 50-1
Fastlane forecast: In Byron's last three races with the 2020 short-track rules package, he has finished outside the top 20 each time and totaled just 25 points. He does have two top 10s in five Phoenix starts but he also has two finishes outside the top 15. I'd rather roll the dice on a driver who has had longer stretches of consistency of late like his Hendrick teammate Alex Bowman.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Jimmie Johnson | View stats
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Four of Johnson's last five races in his final full-time season have produced finishes of 29th or worse and in those races he has totaled 29 points. He has not had a top 10 since the second Dover race in August and has not had a race with more than 30 points since Darlington in September. He's a complete stay away for me in his swan song.
Hendrick Motorsports, No. 48 Chevrolet
Odds: 65-1
Fastlane forecast: Four of Johnson's last five races in his final full-time season have produced finishes of 29th or worse and in those races he has totaled 29 points. He has not had a top 10 since the second Dover race in August and has not had a race with more than 30 points since Darlington in September. He's a complete stay away for me in his swan song.
Chris Graythen | Getty Images
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STAY AWAY FROM: Austin Dillon | View stats
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's Phoenix stats see him with two top 10s in 13 starts and he has finished outside the top 20 in his last three starts there. He has the 14th-most points with the 2020 short-track package. For me, if I am going to gamble on a driver who hasn't fared well at Phoenix, I’d rather roll the dice on someone like Bowman, who has run very well the last two months.
Richard Childress Racing, No. 3 Chevrolet
Odds: 150-1
Fastlane forecast: Dillon's Phoenix stats see him with two top 10s in 13 starts and he has finished outside the top 20 in his last three starts there. He has the 14th-most points with the 2020 short-track package. For me, if I am going to gamble on a driver who hasn't fared well at Phoenix, I’d rather roll the dice on someone like Bowman, who has run very well the last two months.
Jared C. Tilton | Getty Images
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My lineup heading into the weekend: Brad Keselowski (P), Chase Elliott (P), Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Aric Almirola; Garage: Alex Bowman.
I’m out of Kevin Harvick uses but I will be taking him to win Stage 2 and the race. Potentially will take him in Stage 1 too, but I’m leaning toward a playoff driver to nab that.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
I’m out of Kevin Harvick uses but I will be taking him to win Stage 2 and the race. Potentially will take him in Stage 1 too, but I’m leaning toward a playoff driver to nab that.
Tweet at me @kraftdaddy85
with your lineups and questions ahead of Sunday's race at 3 p.m. ET on NBC.
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